The GBPUSD has seen down, up and now again down worth motion because the US jobs report.
The value initially moved to the draw back falling to a low of 1.25197 shortly after launch of the roles report. That took the worth under a swing stage at 1.2524, however solely briefly earlier than bouncing again to the upside.
That squeeze increased took the worth again as much as retest its 100 and 200 hour shifting averages close to 1.2575. Earlier in the present day and yesterday, merchants leaned in opposition to these shifting averages and did a fairly good job of stalling the rallies. This rally was no exception. Consumers turned to sellers and the worth has moved decrease.
The 1.2524 stage has now been damaged and is now shut resistance/danger. The 1.2500 is the following draw back goal adopted by the 38.2% retracement of the transfer up from the Might 13 low. That stage is available in at 1.24705.
Yesterday, the worth low was close to that 38.2% retracement stage earlier than racing to the upside. On Wednesday, the worth moved under that stage however couldn’t maintain momentum, rapidly rebounded. Not with the ability to keep under the 38.2% retracement was a pink flag for merchants, and assist to contribute to the upside momentum throughout yesterday’s commerce.
Having mentioned that, the 100/200 hour shifting common maintain on the rally can be a pink flag for merchants and has contributed to the draw back momentum.
With the 1.2524 stage now damaged, can the momentum take the worth again down towards a retest of the 38.2% retracement space and provides the sellers one other alternative to interrupt the GBPUSD pair decrease?
Keep under 1.2524 and that would be the path of least resistance.
PS The formation on the hourly chart seems to be head and shoulder-ish